25201 Origin: A Misguided Attempt
During the Middle Ages, people believed that by creating the philosopher's stone, anything could be turned into gold.
One day in 1520, Swiss alchemist Paracelsus (1494-1541) stared at the messy metal blocks and instruments before him, perhaps momentarily distracted, he accidentally brushed some iron filings into a container of sulfuric acid.
This alchemist would not have thought that his years of devotion and effort did not yield the philosopher's stone that could turn stones into gold, but instead produced the small bubbles now rising to the surface.
Most of the world's wonderful discoveries seem to come from accidents, and this time was no different—the accidental production of hydrogen gas.
Indeed, modern science has shown that there is no such thing as an alchemical transmutation of base metals into gold. However, green hydrogen (also known as renewable hydrogen), produced through the electrolysis of water using wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources, can not only replace fossil fuels in the future but also produce almost no greenhouse gases throughout the entire hydrogen production process, making it akin to modern "alchemy."
02 Transformation: The Ideal Form of Zero-Carbon Hydrogen
For a long time, the development of hydrogen energy has been accompanied by controversies over environmental protection and economic viability. With a calorific value 3-5 times higher than oil and coal, hydrogen is seen as an ideal substitute for fossil fuels.
However, each of its brief appearances seems to be confined to the imagination of those directly affected by crises such as oil and energy shortages, and it falls into obscurity once the crisis passes.
This time, the climate crisis has become a problem for everyone, so hydrogen energy has embarked on a "revival" path. It is now truly being given great hope, with a complete hydrogen production, storage, and refueling industry chain extending into sectors such as industry, transportation, and energy storage, and living in practical applications.
High calorific value? Fuel replacement? Clean and non-toxic? Not enough, far from enough.
People have great hopes for it, but gray hydrogen produced from fossil fuels and blue hydrogen produced from industrial byproduct gases do not meet our green requirements for hydrogen production methods.
03 Challenges: Trapped by Technology and Cost
Since the announcement of China's dual carbon targets in 2020, the country's hydrogen energy industry has welcomed significant development opportunities under a series of policy supports.
In 2022, China's annual hydrogen production was approximately 37.81 million tons. According to the latest data from the Orange Hydrogen Database, a total of 318 hydrogen refueling stations have been built nationwide, making China the world's largest hydrogen producer. However, gray hydrogen remains the dominant method of hydrogen production both in China and internationally.
Hydrogen production from fossil fuels, on one hand, is affected by the energy transition, leading to a reduction in raw material supply; on the other hand, the process produces about 14 kg of carbon emissions for every 1 kg of hydrogen produced [6]. Clearly, this is not the optimal choice for hydrogen production.
Blue hydrogen, which is produced from industrial byproduct gases, has the advantage of requiring minimal additional capital and fossil fuel inputs, offering significant cost and emission reduction benefits. However, due to the large amount of fugitive methane emissions during the production of blue hydrogen, the carbon footprint remains high [7].
Electrolysis of water for hydrogen production involves simple equipment and stable processes, and can achieve nearly zero carbon emissions. Additionally, this method can be coupled with renewable energy generation, aligning with future energy transition directions.
However, from a technical perspective, according to data provided by the High-Work Hydrogen Institute, the current relatively mature alkaline electrolysis of water requires a stable power source, making it "powerless" against the fluctuations and intermittency of renewable energy.
Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis of water, which can adapt to these fluctuations, has a smaller scale and faces supply chain limitations due to the need for rare metals like platinum and iridium, making large-scale application premature.
From a cost perspective, technical constraints and resource scarcity have led to a unit hydrogen production cost that is 4-5 times higher than coal-based hydrogen [6].
Thus, cost and technology have become the main factors constraining the development of green hydrogen.
04 Breakthrough: Driven by Top-Level Design
International: Entering a Substantive Development Stage
Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU urgently seeks to develop hydrogen energy to reduce its dependence on foreign natural gas and has planned multi-dimensional subsidy policies for renewable hydrogen.
With the EU Innovation Fund committing 800 million euros to subsidize pilot tenders for green hydrogen projects starting in the second half of this year and the announcement of plans to build dedicated green hydrogen pipelines across Europe, the EU's green hydrogen sector will enter a substantive development stage.
The United States, Japan, and other developed countries are also increasing support for the green hydrogen industry through tax subsidies, securing overseas supply chains, and other measures, and it is expected that the global green hydrogen industry will see accelerated growth.
China: Clear Policy Planning, Local Layouts, and a Promising Future
In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Hydrogen Industry Development (2021-2035)," which states that by 2025, China's renewable hydrogen production will reach 100,000 to 200,000 tons per year, forming a hydrogen supply system mainly based on renewable energy hydrogen, industrial byproduct hydrogen, and renewable energy hydrogen; by 2030, renewable hydrogen will be widely used; and by 2035, the proportion of renewable hydrogen in terminal energy consumption will significantly increase.
With policy support, numerous renewable hydrogen projects have been initiated in China. To date, central enterprises such as the State Energy Group, Sinopec, and State Power Investment Corporation have planned several renewable hydrogen projects.
The cost advantage of renewable hydrogen production in regions rich in renewable energy resources is becoming evident. In areas like Ordos and Ningxia, the cost of renewable hydrogen has reached 18-20 yuan per kilogram [4], initially forming a competitive edge over fossil fuel-based hydrogen.
Policy support will inevitably lead to market expansion, which in turn will promote investment in technology and talent. As technology advances and innovations continue, green hydrogen will eventually embark on the path to affordability.
05Application: Leading Industries in Chemicals, Steel, and Transportation
By 2030, it is expected that China's renewable hydrogen will be applied on a large scale in the chemical, steel, and transportation sectors, with significant spatial differences in its application across different industries [5]:
Chemical Industry:
In the future, the application of green hydrogen in the chemical industry will primarily involve two modes: replacing traditional processes with renewable hydrogen and utilizing renewable hydrogen in new chemical production processes.
In traditional processes, the large-scale use of renewable hydrogen as a feedstock requires extensive modifications to production lines, which are costly and risky in the short term. Therefore, over the next decade, renewable hydrogen will mainly serve as a substitute for traditional fossil fuel-based hydrogen.
New chemical pathways use different technologies from existing traditional production methods, making it difficult to retrofit existing projects. Thus, they are suitable only for new projects, where renewable hydrogen can be used as a low-carbon chemical feedstock.
Steel Industry:
The utilization of renewable hydrogen in the steel industry is concentrated in new production processes for added capacity, with leading companies taking the initiative. In recent years, major domestic steel enterprises have launched pilot projects for hydrogen-based metallurgical technologies.
In the future, when steel companies choose locations for hydrogen-based ironmaking projects, they will prefer areas with abundant renewable hydrogen resources.
By reducing hydrogen storage and transportation costs, overall costs can be lowered, and the northwest region will become the most important base for hydrogen-based ironmaking. The steel industry in the eastern and northern regions, particularly the renewable hydrogen-based metallurgy sector, will shift to some extent towards the northwest region.
Transportation Industry:
Compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in passenger and commercial vehicle segments, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are more focused on heavy-duty trucks, cold chain logistics, intercity buses, city buses, and port and mine operation vehicles, which require high stability in range.
Additionally, in colder northeastern and northwestern regions, FCEVs have significant potential in taxi and government vehicle applications, solving the problem of limited range for electric vehicles in cold conditions.
For example, in a 9.6-meter truck, under current hydrogen technology conditions, green hydrogen reduces carbon emissions by about 0.85 kg CO2 equivalent per kilometer compared to diesel fuel, solely from the combustion phase.
Considering the full lifecycle of various fuels, green hydrogen reduces carbon emissions by about 0.2 kg CO2 equivalent per kilometer compared to diesel fuel, as the liquefaction stage of hydrogen still incurs significant carbon emissions.
Compared to BEVs, if we consider only the companies using green hydrogen vehicles, their emission reduction advantages are very clear. However, if we extend the analysis to the entire supply chain, the emission reduction benefits of green hydrogen vehicles are not as prominent compared to BEVs.
06Continued: The Long Journey of the Philosopher's Stone
During the Middle Ages, alchemists believed that people could create the philosopher's stone, which would then turn any material into gold. They said, "May we obtain that stone which cannot be destroyed by fire or decay, and we will be free from all fears."
From the EU's proposal of a hydrogen strategy in 2020 to the recent publication of green hydrogen standards, the EU spent three years defining green hydrogen.
China, the United States, and other countries did not release clear plans for green hydrogen until 2022. The development of green hydrogen has been long and arduous, fraught with controversy. It is like a toddler taking its first steps, navigating through numerous obstacles and challenges, striving for progress.
However, like the growth path of all new technologies and energy sources, with the improvement of the hydrogen industry system and the development of core technologies, finding the "philosopher's stone" of green hydrogen will ultimately become a crucial effort in overcoming the fear of the climate crisis.
